TECHNICALS
Vijay Bhambwani / Mumbai February 8, 2008
The markets opened with a negative bias and closed with significant losses led by selling in frontline index heavies. The traded volumes were marginally higher as the intraday volatility and wider range saw broader day trader participation.
The market breadth was negative as the combined exchange figures were 1027:2966 and the capitalisation of breadth was also negative, with the figures being Rs 1363 crore:Rs 18,892 crore.
The indices have closed at lower end of the intraday range and on continued negative market internals. The traded volumes were marginally higher. The intraday range specified for Thursday at 5190/5450 was violated on declines as the selling pressure was palpable.
The coming session is likely to witness an intraday range of 4990 on declines and 5275 on advances. The declining daily range indicates a lower top and bottom formation. Watch the traded volumes in case of an drawdown below the 5000 levels, which will indicate stepped up bearish aggression.
The number of trades increased and the average ticket size was lower, indicating the absence of stronger hands. The capitalisation was lower in line with a downtick session.
The outlook for the Friday remains guarded as the weekend factor will go against buying momentum. Should the overseas cues turn negative, expect more unwinding. Avoid big ticket trades for now.
Friday, February 8, 2008
Thursday, February 7, 2008
Global cues a major determinant
TECHNICALS
Vijay Bhambwani / Mumbai February 7, 2008
The markets opened with a gap down and closed off the intraday lows as some bear covering was seen on declines. The traded volumes were marginally higher as the intraday volatility and wider range saw broader trader participation.
The market breadth was weak as the combined exchange figures were 1719:2241 and the capitalisation of breadth was also negative on a commensurate basis, with the figures being Rs 8465 crore:Rs 11595 crore.
The indices have closed at the lower end of the intraday range and on negative market internals. The intraday range specified for Wednesday at 5430 / 5540 was violated on declines as the selling pressure was significant.
The coming session is likely to witness an intraday range of 5190 on declines and 5450 on advances. Watch the traded volumes in case of an upthrust beyond the 5400 - 5420 levels, which need to spike higher if the bulls are to extend their initiative over the bears.
The market internals indicate a marginally higher turnover as the participation levels rose mildly. The number of trades increased and the average ticket size was lower, indicating the absence of stronger hands. The capitalisation was lower in line with a downtick session.
The outlook for the coming session remains guardedly optimistic and much will depend on the overseas cues. Avoid big ticket trades for now.
Short positions make a comeback
F&O OUTLOOK
B G Shirsat / Mumbai February 7, 2008
The technical pullback fizzled on Wednesday, with the Nifty and Sensex making substantial losses. The current month Nifty futures traded at a discount and added open interest of 33.11 lakh shares, indicating that shorts are back.
Most importantly, the first four trading days of the current contracts have seen a built-up in open interest near the Nifty 4,700 and 4,800 strike prices.
The OI in 4,700 Put has increased by 32.6 per cent to 8.34 lakh shares in four days, while 4,800 Put has witnessed 72.3 per cent increase in OI to 4.46 lakh shares.
The 4,700 Put options witnessed hectic activity on Wednesday, with 6,312 contracts of 50 shares each being traded at a premium of Rs 75 a share. The 4,800 Put options were in demand as 4,817 contracts were traded at a premium of Rs 115.65 a share.
The down side premium of 10-15 per cent on the 4,700 and 4,800 Puts indicated weakness in the near future.
According to Kamlesh Langote of vfmdirect.com, the bounce-back is over and the previous downturn will now continue. Technically, price-wise corrections are followed by time-wise corrections and we are heading for Nifty levels of 4,500-4,600 and 15,500-16,000 on the Sensex.
For the time being, the Nifty has a support at 5,200, 5,100 and 5,000, going by the open interest build-up in Put options at these levels.
Resistance is seen around 5,400, 5,500 and 5,600 levels as there has been Call OI built-up at these points. The Nifty PCR remained unmoved at 1.08, indicating nervousness among the market participants.
Vijay Bhambwani / Mumbai February 7, 2008
The markets opened with a gap down and closed off the intraday lows as some bear covering was seen on declines. The traded volumes were marginally higher as the intraday volatility and wider range saw broader trader participation.
The market breadth was weak as the combined exchange figures were 1719:2241 and the capitalisation of breadth was also negative on a commensurate basis, with the figures being Rs 8465 crore:Rs 11595 crore.
The indices have closed at the lower end of the intraday range and on negative market internals. The intraday range specified for Wednesday at 5430 / 5540 was violated on declines as the selling pressure was significant.
The coming session is likely to witness an intraday range of 5190 on declines and 5450 on advances. Watch the traded volumes in case of an upthrust beyond the 5400 - 5420 levels, which need to spike higher if the bulls are to extend their initiative over the bears.
The market internals indicate a marginally higher turnover as the participation levels rose mildly. The number of trades increased and the average ticket size was lower, indicating the absence of stronger hands. The capitalisation was lower in line with a downtick session.
The outlook for the coming session remains guardedly optimistic and much will depend on the overseas cues. Avoid big ticket trades for now.
Short positions make a comeback
F&O OUTLOOK
B G Shirsat / Mumbai February 7, 2008
The technical pullback fizzled on Wednesday, with the Nifty and Sensex making substantial losses. The current month Nifty futures traded at a discount and added open interest of 33.11 lakh shares, indicating that shorts are back.
Most importantly, the first four trading days of the current contracts have seen a built-up in open interest near the Nifty 4,700 and 4,800 strike prices.
The OI in 4,700 Put has increased by 32.6 per cent to 8.34 lakh shares in four days, while 4,800 Put has witnessed 72.3 per cent increase in OI to 4.46 lakh shares.
The 4,700 Put options witnessed hectic activity on Wednesday, with 6,312 contracts of 50 shares each being traded at a premium of Rs 75 a share. The 4,800 Put options were in demand as 4,817 contracts were traded at a premium of Rs 115.65 a share.
The down side premium of 10-15 per cent on the 4,700 and 4,800 Puts indicated weakness in the near future.
According to Kamlesh Langote of vfmdirect.com, the bounce-back is over and the previous downturn will now continue. Technically, price-wise corrections are followed by time-wise corrections and we are heading for Nifty levels of 4,500-4,600 and 15,500-16,000 on the Sensex.
For the time being, the Nifty has a support at 5,200, 5,100 and 5,000, going by the open interest build-up in Put options at these levels.
Resistance is seen around 5,400, 5,500 and 5,600 levels as there has been Call OI built-up at these points. The Nifty PCR remained unmoved at 1.08, indicating nervousness among the market participants.
Wednesday, February 6, 2008
Fresh upward impetus likely
TECHNICALS
BS News
Vijay Bhambwani / Mumbai February 6, 2008
The markets opened with some trepidation on the back of overseas cues, but managed to recover by close. The traded volumes were subdued as the intraday range was compressed.
The turnover was also marginally lower as the short-term moves were narrow. The market breadth was positive as the combined exchange figures were 2671:1299.
The capitalisation of breadth was also positive on a commensurate basis as the figures were Rs 12604 crore:Rs 5171 crore.
The indices have closed at the upper end of the intraday range and on positive market internals. The truncated traded volumes can be attributed to the low intraday movement.
The intraday range specified for Tuesday at 5320 / 5605 was not tested in either direction as the sentiment was calm after a big move in the previous session.
The coming session is likely to witness an intraday range of 5430 on declines and 5540 on advances. Watch the traded volumes in case of an upthrust beyond the 5540 levels, which need to spike higher if the bulls are to extend their initiative over the bears.
The outlook for the coming session remains positive and should the overseas cues remain positive/neutral, we expect a fresh upward impetus. Avoid contrarian short selling for now.
BS News
Vijay Bhambwani / Mumbai February 6, 2008
The markets opened with some trepidation on the back of overseas cues, but managed to recover by close. The traded volumes were subdued as the intraday range was compressed.
The turnover was also marginally lower as the short-term moves were narrow. The market breadth was positive as the combined exchange figures were 2671:1299.
The capitalisation of breadth was also positive on a commensurate basis as the figures were Rs 12604 crore:Rs 5171 crore.
The indices have closed at the upper end of the intraday range and on positive market internals. The truncated traded volumes can be attributed to the low intraday movement.
The intraday range specified for Tuesday at 5320 / 5605 was not tested in either direction as the sentiment was calm after a big move in the previous session.
The coming session is likely to witness an intraday range of 5430 on declines and 5540 on advances. Watch the traded volumes in case of an upthrust beyond the 5540 levels, which need to spike higher if the bulls are to extend their initiative over the bears.
The outlook for the coming session remains positive and should the overseas cues remain positive/neutral, we expect a fresh upward impetus. Avoid contrarian short selling for now.
Tuesday, February 5, 2008
Near-term outlook seems bright
TECHNICALS
BS News
Vijay Bhambwani / Mumbai February 5, 2008
The markets opened with a bang and proceeded to end higher after some profit sales in the second half of the session. The traded volumes improved marginally over the previous session and the market breadth was highly positive.
The combined exchange advance decline ratio stood at 3304:696 and the capitalisation of the breadth was also positive as the commensurate figures were Rs 12397 crore: Rs 1190 crore.
The indices have closed at the upper end of the intraday range and that too on positive market internals. The mildly higher volumes can partly be attributed to the scepticism in the retail camp.
The 5470 / 5160 range specified for Monday was overcome on the upsides as the bulls prevailed over the bears. The coming session is likely to witness an intraday range of 5320 / 5605. Watch the traded volumes above the 5460 pivot level as the bulls may attempt a fresh upthrust.
The market internals indicate a higher turnover as the participation levels rose marginally. The number of trades increased and the average ticket size was lower, indicating the absence of stronger hands.
The outlook for the markets on Tuesday will be that of continued optimism and barring the overseas cues, the near term outlook appears optimistic.
BS News
Vijay Bhambwani / Mumbai February 5, 2008
The markets opened with a bang and proceeded to end higher after some profit sales in the second half of the session. The traded volumes improved marginally over the previous session and the market breadth was highly positive.
The combined exchange advance decline ratio stood at 3304:696 and the capitalisation of the breadth was also positive as the commensurate figures were Rs 12397 crore: Rs 1190 crore.
The indices have closed at the upper end of the intraday range and that too on positive market internals. The mildly higher volumes can partly be attributed to the scepticism in the retail camp.
The 5470 / 5160 range specified for Monday was overcome on the upsides as the bulls prevailed over the bears. The coming session is likely to witness an intraday range of 5320 / 5605. Watch the traded volumes above the 5460 pivot level as the bulls may attempt a fresh upthrust.
The market internals indicate a higher turnover as the participation levels rose marginally. The number of trades increased and the average ticket size was lower, indicating the absence of stronger hands.
The outlook for the markets on Tuesday will be that of continued optimism and barring the overseas cues, the near term outlook appears optimistic.
Saturday, February 2, 2008
After a week-long rangebound trading, the markets witnessed a decisive breakout on Friday. The Nifty February futures series closed 4.67 per cent higher to 5320.80 on short covering with discount to spot Nifty.
Despite trading volumes of 5.67 lakh contracts, the open interest in Nifty futures has declined by 12,886 contracts indicating short covering by bears.
On Friday’s breakout has been the fastest after the weeklong weakness and hence it is a technical relief rally. According to Kamlesh Langote of vfmdirect.com, “If the current breakout has to be sustained decisively, the Nifty has to close above 5,400 levels on Monday. If it fails to do so, we may see a sharp correction thereafter.”
There are chances of the Nifty rallying further by 200 to 300 points before in for corrections, says Kamlesh. The 600 points surge in Sensex and 200 points rally in Nifty, however lack participants as well as restricted to large cap group. The trading volumes on F&O segment of NSE declined to almost 20 months low at Rs 35,800 crore.
Only during the May 2006, the average daily trading volumes declined below Rs 35,000 crore.
The breadth of the market remained restricted to index stocks with 80 per cent of Nifty and 90 per cent stocks were gainers, while only 40 per cent of actively traded stocks participated in the rally.
The Reliance pack have participated the rally with February futures of Reliance Industries up 2.77 per cent, Reliance Energy up 2.04 per cent and Reliance Capital up 3.87 per cent on fresh long positions. Reliance Communication was up 3.77 per cent on short covering.
Despite trading volumes of 5.67 lakh contracts, the open interest in Nifty futures has declined by 12,886 contracts indicating short covering by bears.
On Friday’s breakout has been the fastest after the weeklong weakness and hence it is a technical relief rally. According to Kamlesh Langote of vfmdirect.com, “If the current breakout has to be sustained decisively, the Nifty has to close above 5,400 levels on Monday. If it fails to do so, we may see a sharp correction thereafter.”
There are chances of the Nifty rallying further by 200 to 300 points before in for corrections, says Kamlesh. The 600 points surge in Sensex and 200 points rally in Nifty, however lack participants as well as restricted to large cap group. The trading volumes on F&O segment of NSE declined to almost 20 months low at Rs 35,800 crore.
Only during the May 2006, the average daily trading volumes declined below Rs 35,000 crore.
The breadth of the market remained restricted to index stocks with 80 per cent of Nifty and 90 per cent stocks were gainers, while only 40 per cent of actively traded stocks participated in the rally.
The Reliance pack have participated the rally with February futures of Reliance Industries up 2.77 per cent, Reliance Energy up 2.04 per cent and Reliance Capital up 3.87 per cent on fresh long positions. Reliance Communication was up 3.77 per cent on short covering.
Friday, February 1, 2008
The markets opened on an optimistic note but ended negative as the bulls were unable to hold their own against the selling pressure.
The market breadth was negative as the combined exchange figures were 1388: 2542 and the capitalisation of the breadth was also negative as the commensurate figures were Rs 7756 crore:Rs 18066 crore.
The f&o data for the session indicates a routine unwinding of long positions on expiry day.
The indices have closed at the lower end of the intraday range and that too on higher traded volumes and negative market internals.
The higher volumes can partly be attributed to the expiry session. The 5060/5275 range specified for Thursday held, thereby validating our wave count.
The coming session is likely to witness an intraday range of 5025/5245 on declines and advances respectively. Watch the traded volumes keenly if the Nifty manages to trade below the 5140 pivot level consistently as the bears may attempt fresh aggression.
The weekend factor coupled with overseas cues may impact the near term outlook on Friday and hence one should proceed with caution. The price discovery process is likely to start in earnest in the new f&o series.
The market breadth was negative as the combined exchange figures were 1388: 2542 and the capitalisation of the breadth was also negative as the commensurate figures were Rs 7756 crore:Rs 18066 crore.
The f&o data for the session indicates a routine unwinding of long positions on expiry day.
The indices have closed at the lower end of the intraday range and that too on higher traded volumes and negative market internals.
The higher volumes can partly be attributed to the expiry session. The 5060/5275 range specified for Thursday held, thereby validating our wave count.
The coming session is likely to witness an intraday range of 5025/5245 on declines and advances respectively. Watch the traded volumes keenly if the Nifty manages to trade below the 5140 pivot level consistently as the bears may attempt fresh aggression.
The weekend factor coupled with overseas cues may impact the near term outlook on Friday and hence one should proceed with caution. The price discovery process is likely to start in earnest in the new f&o series.
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